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The delightful poem by John O’Brien is a classic of the pessimistic bushie. No rain and we’re all in trouble. The rain comes and we’re in trouble if it doesn’t stop. The rain recedes, the crops flourish – and the threat of bushfire will wipe us all out!
The movie The Day After Tomorrow painted a cataclysmic picture of a society that is unable to grapple with global anthropogenic climate change.
There have been many predictions but what are the facts. We are not into predictions here so we’ll just look at what is happening around the globe and what some people have said over the past few years.
Dr. Ryan N. Maue of Florida State University studies tropical cyclones. In August 2011 he wrote on his blog: “It is a good idea to recognize that the population of ‘major’ global hurricanes has not increased since 1979. There are always ups and downs, recessions and depressions in activity. But, the overall trend is flat proving conclusively that there is NO ‘overall’ global increase in hurricanes, minor or major. Since natural variability such as El Nino and La Nina is the primary driver of global hurricane variability, any discussion of ‘climate change’ impacts on TCs is woefully incomplete without acknowledging the effects of ENSO on global TC activity.”
In Australia the Bureau of Meteorology has produced a graph showing a decline in overall tropical cyclone activity although no decline in intense cyclones. It states: “Tropical cyclone numbers in the Australian region are influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the decrease in total cyclone numbers may be associated with an increased frequency of El Niño events.”
The fourth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 had good news and bad.
"The oceans are more stable and resistant to change than we thought," the report states, backing away from a fear that the cycle of deep-sea currents was collapsing (this is the concept exploited in the movie “The Day After Tomorrow” we mention above, so we can breathe some sigh of relief that New Yo0rk is not going to be overcome by a massive wave.)
The report predicts that global temperatures will rise 2.5 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, assuming we take no drastic action.
The Age newspaper quoted climate expert Dr Graeme Pearman, a former CSIRO chief of atmospheric research at the time of the report’s draft release: "Regarding the southern part of the country, all the models seem to be agreeing that there will be a poleward movement of the high-pressure belt that dominates Australia's dry climate.
"It means that the westerly storm belts that bring winter rain to the southern parts of the country are going to be further south and less effective."
The report also predicts that sea levels could rise by between 20cm and 60cm in the next 100 years.
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